There is no need to introduce Covid-19 to the reader. For several months now this virus has spread not only in our bodies, but also across our news bulletins worldwide.
Health is of course everybody’s primary concern. Governments have decided to take an immediate and hard hit to our economies in order to save lives. As statistics about the death toll and the occupancy of beds in intensive care are becoming less dramatic, the economic activity is now slowly increasing again. But it remains under threat in case the damage caused by the virus would accelerate again.
As the first figures of the recession are becoming available (the Eurozone shrank during Q1 by an estimated 3.8%, worse than at any time during the financial crisis), we decided at Management 15 to ask our 200 most senior contacts to give us their “gut feeling” about how quickly the economy would recover and how different it would look after the crisis.
The survey took place from the 20th April to the 6th May 2020. The participants are all Western European and originate mainly from the financial industry, from consultancy and from retail. Many of them have a privileged view, because in addition of managing their own business, they are in direct contact with decision makers at their customers (for example in the case of acquirers or consultants). They answered a short survey and some kindly accepted to share their insights through a telephone interview.
We collected in total 32 answers to the survey. If this figure is too low to be statistically significative, the results provide nonetheless a view on how rapidly the various economic sectors are likely to recover from the crisis. In this period of uncertainty, such information can help companies adapt their business plans, check their sensitivity – and that of their competitors – to particular sectors and extract some useful conclusions for their vulnerability or strength in the coming years that will drive strategic choices.
In addition we have interviewed 11 respondents. The insights of these interviews are numerous, and the report will only cover the most important ones. Some are widely shared and expected – such as the acceleration of the digital economy – but others were voiced by only a few professionals and are worth a debate.
I hope that you will enjoy the reading of this survey report. Any comments you may have both in terms of the contents and of the format are very welcome.
Nicolas Ancot
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